Methodology and sources

Forecasts

We use the Locationforecast 2.0 API of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), which provides hourly global forecasts for about 60 hours, then 6-hour steps up to 9-10 days. For our region these forecasts rely on the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The data is published under a CC BY 4.0 licence; we process it (daily aggregation, scores, advice).

We query ten forecast points: Marrakech (medina), the Agafay Desert, the Ourika Valley (Setti Fatma), Imlil, Toubkal summit, Oukaïmeden, Essaouira, Ouarzazate, Merzouga and the Ouzoud Falls, each at its own altitude. Data is refreshed roughly every hour, in line with MET Norway’s terms of service.

The trend beyond 9 days

On the 14-day page, days beyond the model forecast are a trend built from 1991-2020 averages smoothed day by day. They are labelled as such and are not a forecast.

Activity scores

Each score runs from 0 to 100 and follows transparent rules:

• Souks & medina, gardens: hour-by-hour thermal comfort (ideal feels-like between 17 and 26 °C), with penalties for rain, strong wind and UV; we show the best 3-hour window.
• Pool: maximum temperature, cloud cover, wind and rain.
• Dawn balloon flight: wind at sunrise over Agafay, low cloud, fog, rain.
• Agafay sunset: high and mid-level cloud (good), low cloud and rain (bad), wind and dust.
• Stargazing: night-time cloud cover and moonlight.
• Atlas, Ourika, Oukaïmeden, Essaouira: temperature, rain, storms and wind at each point.

Alerts and time

Our alerts flag strong heat (35 °C and above), heatwaves (40 °C and above), chergui (hot, dry easterly wind), strong wind, rain, storms, very high UV, chilly nights and public holidays. Sun and moon positions are computed with standard astronomical formulas. All times are local: Morocco has been on GMT all year since 20 September 2026.

Today’s briefing

Several times a day a language model hosted on Cloudflare Workers AI receives a numerical summary of the forecast and our interpretation rules, with the instruction not to invent anything. The resulting text is shown with a “Written by AI” badge. When there is no AI text, our rules compose the briefing automatically.

Climate normals

Marrakech, Essaouira and Ouarzazate: 1991-2020 normals (WMO/NOAA). Paris: Météo-France (Montsouris). London: Met Office (Kew Gardens). Madrid: AEMET (Retiro). Essaouira sea temperature: rounded satellite averages (±1-2 °C). For mountain sites without a station we estimate temperatures from Marrakech using a 6 °C per 1,000 m lapse rate.

Limits

A forecast is a probability. Mountain storms in particular are hard to pinpoint. Our advice is indicative: for risky activities (high-altitude hiking, balloon flights, mountain driving) always follow the instructions of professionals and local authorities.

Photo credits

• majorelle — Viault · CC BY-SA 3.0
• ysl — Pivari · CC BY 4.0
• souks — Petar Milošević · CC BY-SA 4.0
• medina — DimiTalen · CC0
• jemaa — procsilas · CC BY 2.0
• rooftop — Regnard · Public domain
• bahia — Val Traveler · CC BY-SA 4.0
• benyoussef — Marco Almbauer · CC BY-SA 4.0
• secret — muffinn from Worcester, UK · CC BY 2.0
• badi — Jakub Hałun · CC BY 4.0
• saadian — Mike Prince from Bangalore, India · CC BY 2.0
• menara — Mustang Joe · CC0
• koutoubia — Wikimedia Commons · Public domain
• hammam — R Prazeres · CC BY-SA 4.0
• cooking — Bawdeep2010 · CC BY-SA 4.0
• palmeraie — Viault · CC BY-SA 3.0
• agafay — Jakub Hałun · CC BY 4.0
• sunset — Photo2023 · CC BY 4.0
• balloon — Marcosleal (derivative: Pro2) · CC BY-SA 3.0
• stars — Mustang Joe · CC0
• pool — Dutch Morocco Investments SARL · CC BY-SA 4.0
• ourika — Mzximvs VdB from Brussels, belgium · CC BY-SA 2.0
• imlil — Mounir Neddi · CC BY-SA 4.0
• ouka — MED.BENALLA · CC BY-SA 3.0
• essaouira — Pawel Ryszawa · CC BY-SA 3.0
• ouarzazate — Petar Milošević · CC BY-SA 4.0
• merzouga — Thomas Fuhrmann · CC BY-SA 4.0
• ouzoud — Jakub Hałun · CC BY 4.0
• snow — Ralf Steinberger · CC BY 2.0
• moon — Gregory H. Revera · CC BY-SA 3.0